A VERY happy and prosperous New Year to one and all.

Having personally, and uncharacteristically, had the driest Christmas on record due to a nasty bug, I tried to make up for lost time heralding in 2004, which is destined to be the most momentous year for agriculture since rationing was introduced during the Second World War.

Although implementation will not be effected until next year, the coming months are those which will see the policy decisions made for our future.

Before we can make any plans, our Government has to choose between the two alternative methods of calculating the single payment entitlement for each farmer.

I repeat that which I have written in recent weeks, namely the choice lies between a single payment, whereby farmers will broadly get the same rate per acre for the area they farm; or, alternatively, the payment will be based upon all the subsidies that farmers received historically, which would give them very different figures one to another.

As I write this column on Tuesday, Lord Witty was expected to announce the judgement of his Government at the Oxford Farming Conference today but my latest inside information is that with masterly indecision, the whole process is going to be delayed at least another month.

This means we shall have not a clue where we are going until mid-February which is really not very satisfactory.

For those interested we hope to set up a seminar in late February to analyse the Government's policy statements when they come out

David Sheppard writes: "What a difference a year makes!"

Twelve months ago, wheat prices were struggling to get to £60 ex farm and the prospect of large acreages being set aside under the mid-term review (MTR) was a very real possibility.

Today, wheat has nearly doubled in price, and the decimation of the agriculture supply industry, due to the possible effects of the MTR, has been put on hold with acceptable prices on offer for harvest 2004.

A year ago, Dalgety still had the largest market share in the grain, seed and fertiliser sector; but it no longer exists, having been swallowed up by Grainfarmers and Masstock.

A year ago, David was loading wheat ships bound for America and Australia following their poor harvest but today roles are reversed and their wheat will be coming in to Europe following our summer drought.

Even in the merriest of moments, no one in the grain trade forecasted the dramatic events that have taken place, and looking ahead to 2004 could be equally tricky.

However, provided there are no major crop disasters in the world this year, David thinks that £100 ex-farm for harvest 2004 will not be on the cards and the reality will be a range in prices from £75 to £85.

He equally doesn't expect to see a collapse back to last year's low.

There will be some cynics who say that it is just a grain merchant talking the market down again, but high prices mean happy farmers and that euphoric state means more trade!

I'm afraid I find it a little incomprehensible that our American cousins, having watched the destruction of our beef industry through BSE, have taken no protective measures to look after their own vast beef-producing empire.

I understand that there are still 30-40 plants producing meat and bonemeal which goes in to animal feed and this was patently the favourite cause of BSE in Europe.

A prerequisite of resolving any disease outbreak has to be identification and traceability.

The Americans seem sadly lacking in either and one really would have thought they would have looked across the water to learn a little, however much over the top Europe has gone with its double tagging and individual passports.

As far as the effect on this country is concerned, we only imported 15 tonnes of US beef in the first nine months of 2003 and this will easily be replaced from elsewhere.

Without being too unsympathetic, I feel the Americans should accept that occasionally the rest of the world has something to teach them.

Judy got a charming little gardening anthology for Christmas and here are a couple of comical quotes.

"Everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it!"

The second extract was written by Charles Barr who had a lateral view on his garden.

"The best way to get real enjoyment out of the garden is to put on a wide straw hat, hold a little trowel in one hand, and a cool drink in the other and tell the man where to dig."

Most of my meat trade contacts seem to have had a very good festive season, selling beef and lamb especially. Quality continental cattle are making 110p upwards, and the very best 130p per kilo.

Just as importantly, the black and white manufacturing beef is a very good trade and the odd one is creeping towards 100p per kilo.

The sheep market is also charging ahead with averages heading towards 125p per kilo and the best hoggs making over £60 a head.

With this sort of demand the only sensible decision can be to sell live and, if ever there was a need for the auction market, it is in times such as these.

If farmers want to retain Malton, then please think about giving the auction some of your fatstock.

The Sunday before Christmas saw an excellent turnout for the farmers market.

A special thanks to all the stall holders who kindly donated produce for the Christmas Hamper. The raffle raised £223 which has been donated to local cancer charities. The lucky winner was Mrs Sleightholme from Old Malton.

The next farmers market takes place on Saturday, January 24. There will be the usual excellent variety of local produce together with a live poultry and sundries auction which will commence at 11am.

Please come and support your local farmers market.

Tragically, Brian Wilkinson's wife Jill died over the Christmas period and Malton lost one of its leading lady citizens.

Jill was born in Bridlington and trained as a nanny, before being married to Brian in 1962.

She did a tremendous amount of work in the community and for the church; and amongst other things was a joint founder of the Malton and Norton children's library.

The Rev John Manchester conducted a lovely service with readings from the two children Charles and Ariane.

Sincere sympathy to Brian and the family.

Forward on Tuesday were 135 cattle including 34 bulls and 40 cows; 745 sheep including 123 ewes.

Light steers to 102p from B Gray, Fryup. Heavy steers to 113p from J Remmer, Pickering (ave 100.3p).

Medium heifers to 136p from G I Marwood, Harome (109.8p). Heavy heifers to 138p from G I Marwood (110.6p).

Light bulls to 115p from P & I Beal, Settrington (115p). Medium bulls to 125p from P & I Beal (103.2p). Heavy bulls to 111p from P & I Beal (104.3p). Black and white bulls to 95p (86.5p).

Standard lambs to 122.8p from F J Hodsman & Sons, Eddlethorpe (117.8p). Medium lambs to 124.3p from A M Avison, Black Bull (113.6p). Heavy lambs to 115.3p from H W Ward & Sons, Kirby-O-Carr (106.2p). Overweight lambs to 113.2p from H W Ward& Sons 102.2p). Ewes to £72 from R A Robinson, Hutton Buscel (£46.60).

Updated: 11:28 Wednesday, January 07, 2004