In her monthly column, EMMA CROFT of Anderson Grain Marketing Ltd, analyses the changes in crop values

IT has been almost five weeks since my last market report and what a difference the last month has made to both old and new crop values.

At the beginning of March, feed wheat values were continuing to edge lower; a mild winter across much of the northern hemisphere had proved beneficial to the vast amount of developing crops, various southern hemisphere harvests were continuing relatively unhindered and we had a rather comfortable supply and demand situation evident here in the UK.

Fast forward five weeks and the current situation is suddenly rather different.

The ongoing political unrest over in the Ukraine is predominantly responsible for the recent price rally and prices going forward will probably be largely attributed to President Putin’s future plans.

The Black Sea Region is both a keen and competitively priced exporter during the July-September period – harvest time here in the UK. For many importers looking to make foreign cover during this time, Black Sea origin wheat and maize corn currently looks like a risky option; hence the added pressure and thus added value to Canadian, US and European supplies.

Elsewhere the US are having problems of their own with regards to the weather across much of the winter-wheat-growing plains there. Mild but extremely dry weather is believed to be impacting crops which have until now benefited from a largely favourable winter. Little rainfall is also forecast for the next fortnight, adding further pressure to values.

Consequently, new crop feed wheat is currently valued in the region of £150/T ex-farm for collection off the combine; a value which appears to be a tempting place to start marketing next year’s crop for many growers in our region. Further forward, November movement would make £155/T ex-farm.

New crop feed barley is currently at a £15/T discount to feed wheat.

For those of you with old crop feed wheat still left in the shed, £170-175/T ex-farm can be negotiated at this stage depending on quality specification and movement requirements. Feed barley has continued to trade at a significant discount at £140/T ex-farm for spot collection.