Using countryside lore to predict the weather (From Gazette & Herald)

Using countryside lore to predict the weather

3:18pm Friday 30th October 2009

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IN the past – and indeed the fairly recent past – country dwellers and farmers, in particular, would strive to plan their working lives around the prevailing conditions while also bearing in mind that their livelihoods so often depended upon a correct assessment of the forthcoming weather.

Their skills were required to forecast what might happen two, three or more months ahead.

For them, there was not the sophistication of modern weather forecasting techniques with maps on television and in newspapers, charts on computers or even notes on mobile phones.

Nonetheless, their personal skills had to be something better than merely peering out of the window to announce it looked like rain or that the sun might shine.

It was around this time of year therefore, that they tried to forecast what might happen during the coming winter and beyond.

The welfare of their livestock and the right conditions for growing or planting crops or ploughing the land were vital if their efforts were to be successful.

The latter days of October were therefore of considerable importance and that is when the people of the countryside began their weather predictions for winter and even next spring.

To achieve this, they observed the behaviour of animals and plants, they assessed the weather of previous weeks, months or years, they looked at the moon, considered the wind patterns and made predictions based on saints’ days. And it was surprising how often their predictions were correct.

For example, today (Wednesday), was the feast day of Saints Simon and Jude and there was a long tradition that the day was always wet with rain. An old saying said, “On St Jude’s Day, the oxen may play.” Heavy rain on that day meant that no ploughing could be done and so the oxen, then employed instead of horses to draw the ploughs, could have a day of rest. But of course, rain today is not guaranteed.

Horticulturists would examine their plants in an effort to forecast the weather. It was a common belief that if onions had thick and tough skins, the coming winter would be harsh, and this was also forecast if the badgers and birds were very fat.

Similarly, if flowers bloomed late into the autumn, it heralded a bad winter and a lot of rain in October was a sign that the coming December would be very windy.

If there were freezing conditions with frost or snow in October, then January and February would be mild, but if it thundered with lightning in October, then the winter weather would resemble what we might expect in April.

One very common piece of lore for October states that if the leaves cling to the tree boughs after changing colour, it heralds a lot of snow and frost, and another prognostication is that the weather in October will often be similar to that in the coming March.

A full moon in October without any frost suggests there will be no frost until November’s full moon while for every fog in October there will be snow in winter. The severity of the snowfall is suggested by the density of those fogs.

However, if October snow falls on soft, moist earth, it heralds a small harvest later in the year, but if the ground is hard and frozen when it snows, a good harvest beckons.

With November only days away, there are similar pieces of lore for that month. A simple one is that “As is November so is the following March” and perhaps the best known is “If there’s ice in November that will bear a duck, there’ll be nothing after but sludge and muck.” This suggests that a cold and icy November heralds a mild winter and this is supported by “Ice in November brings mud in December.”

November 1 is All Saints’ Day with its own pieces of lore. Many farmers would strive to get their wheat sown before All Saints’ Day in the belief that it would ensure a good harvest the following autumn and in some areas, a patch of unusually mild weather around this time was called ‘The All Saints’ Rest’.

It was also said that if the beech nut was dry at All Saints, a harsh winter could be expected, but if the nut was damp and heavy, we could expect a wet winter.

And watch the robin! If he sings high in a tree it means fine weather, but if he sings near the ground wet weather can be expected.

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